Bitcoin Bear Market Started in November: Analysis
Bitcoin Bear Market Started in November 2024: CryptoQuant Analysis
Zero-Click Summary
Bitcoin entered a bear market in early November 2024 according to CryptoQuant's bull score index and one-year moving average metrics
CryptoQuant predicts Bitcoin could bottom between $56,000 to $60,000 in 2026, representing a 55% drawdown from its all-time high
Current bear market appears more stable with institutional accumulation, no major crypto collapses, and stronger market infrastructure compared to previous cycles
Bitcoin started 2025 at $93,000, peaked at $126,080 in October, and currently trades around $88,543 as of early January 2026
CryptoQuant Indicators Signal Bear Market Entry
Bitcoin may have already entered a bear market two months ago, according to analysis from CryptoQuant's head of research. During a recent episode of the Milk Road show, Julio Moreno revealed that most metrics used in the bull score index turned bearish in early November and have not yet recovered.
The bull score index measures market conditions through various indicators including network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and liquidity. This comprehensive metric ranges from 0 to 100 and provides insight into overall market health.
One-Year Moving Average Confirms Bear Trend
Moreno emphasized that the final confirmation of the bear market comes from a technical indicator: Bitcoin's price falling below its one-year moving average. This metric calculates the average price of an asset over 12 months and serves as a reliable indicator of long-term trends.
Bitcoin's price performance in 2025 supports this bearish outlook. The cryptocurrency started the year trading around $93,000 and reached a peak of $126,080 in October before declining. Bitcoin ended 2025 lower than it began, contradicting many analyst predictions that anticipated 2026 would be a growth year for the cryptocurrency.
Predicted Bottom: $56,000 to $60,000 Range
Based on historical patterns and Bitcoin's realized price, Moreno forecasts that the bear market bottom will likely fall within the $56,000 to $60,000 range over the coming year. With Bitcoin currently trading around $88,543, this prediction suggests further downside ahead.
The realized price represents the average price at which current Bitcoin holders purchased their coins. Historically, during previous bear markets, Bitcoin's price has declined to meet this realized price level. This metric deviates significantly to the upside during bull markets but tends to act as a baseline during bearish periods.
Less Severe Drawdown Expected This Cycle
A decline from Bitcoin's all-time high to $56,000 would represent approximately a 55% drawdown. While substantial, Moreno views this positively compared to previous bear markets. Historical bear cycles have witnessed drawdowns of 70% to 80%, making the current projected decline relatively modest by comparison.
This reduced severity suggests a maturing market with stronger underlying support structures and increased stability compared to earlier cryptocurrency cycles.
Structural Improvements Support Market Stability
The current bear market differs significantly from previous downturns due to several structural improvements in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Most notably, there have been no high-profile crypto-related collapses similar to those experienced in 2022.
The 2022 bear market witnessed devastating events including the Terra ecosystem collapse in May, Celsius Network's failure in June, and FTX's implosion in November. These events sent shockwaves throughout the cryptocurrency sector and accelerated price declines.
Institutional Accumulation Provides Support
Today's market benefits from large institutional players who steadily accumulate cryptocurrency on a regular basis. This consistent demand provides a floor that was absent in previous bear markets when demand typically contracted significantly.
The presence of exchange-traded funds and institutional investors who maintain long-term positions without selling creates a more stable market environment. This structural shift represents a fundamental change in how cryptocurrency markets function during downturns.
Increased Market Participation and Infrastructure
The cryptocurrency sector now boasts a larger pool of traders and investors willing to enter the market during price declines. Additionally, more reliable companies and projects have emerged, providing stronger infrastructure and reducing systemic risk.
These improvements suggest that while the current bear market may continue, it operates within a more mature and resilient ecosystem than previous cycles. The combination of institutional participation, improved infrastructure, and absence of major failures contributes to greater overall market stability.
Market Outlook and Investment Considerations
While the bear market analysis suggests challenging times ahead for Bitcoin prices, the structural improvements in the cryptocurrency ecosystem provide reasons for cautious optimism. The predicted bottom range of $56,000 to $60,000 may present accumulation opportunities for long-term investors.
Understanding market cycles and using technical indicators like the one-year moving average can help investors make informed decisions during volatile periods. The current bear market, while potentially painful for short-term holders, may ultimately prove less severe than previous downturns due to fundamental improvements in market structure and participation.
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