Solana Price Set to Rally on US Staking ETF Launch
Introduction
Solana’s price action this week has been driven by growing anticipation for the first US-listed SOL staking ETF, set to launch on July 2, 2025. After briefly spiking to $159 on reports of the ETF debut, SOL retraced to around $151 on July 1, even as 24-hour trading volumes jumped over 70% to $4.79 billion.
Impact of the US Staking ETF Launch
The REX-Osprey SOL staking ETF will offer investors direct exposure to SOL alongside staking rewards, marking a significant step toward broader institutional adoption. The ETF structure is expected to attract larger capital inflows, potentially catalyzing a sustained rally in Solana’s price.
Surge in Retail and Institutional Interest
On-chain data shows that the number of wallets holding more than 0.1 SOL reached a new all-time high of 11.44 million, suggesting strong positioning by small-scale traders. Concurrently, bullish forecasts from leading analysts point to an “Altcoin ETF Summer” with Solana leading the charge as approval odds for both staking and spot SOL ETFs climb into the mid-90% range.
Technical Analysis and Price Forecast
SOL has formed a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, with resistance at the recent high of $159 and support near $145. A decisive close above $159 could trigger a 47% rally toward $235. Key moving averages to watch are the 50-day SMA at $157 and the 200-day SMA at $166—crossing and holding above both would greatly increase the likelihood of reclaiming the $200 psychological level.
What to Watch Tomorrow
Traders will be monitoring tomorrow’s ETF launch closely. A strong breakout and follow-through on volume could set the stage for Solana to break past $200, while failure to hold above critical SMAs could see SOL slip back toward the $145–$150 zone.