XRP Price Analysis: Technical Outlook After $3 Failure

XRP has experienced significant volatility recently, dropping more than 20% from its July peak near $3.66. The cryptocurrency fell 4% in the past 24 hours, breaking below the critical $3 psychological resistance level that traders have been closely monitoring.

Current Market Position

The digital asset's recent decline has pushed it below key technical levels, raising questions about its near-term direction. However, technical analysts remain cautiously optimistic about XRP's potential for recovery, provided certain support levels hold.

Elliott Wave Analysis Points to $4.40 Target

According to Elliott Wave analyst Avi Harkishun, XRP could see a rebound toward the $4.00-$4.40 range if it maintains support around the crucial $2.95 level. This price zone has historical significance, having acted as resistance during the mid-2021 market recovery before transforming into support following XRP's breakout earlier this year.

The analyst's target zone aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level, calculated from XRP's swing high near $3.38 down to its swing low around $1.61. This technical confluence strengthens the validity of the projected price target.

Bull Pennant Formation Suggests Breakout Potential

Technical chart patterns are showing promising signals for XRP bulls. The cryptocurrency has formed a bull pennant pattern, which typically indicates continuation of the previous uptrend. This formation points to a potential breakout toward $4.40, with an extended technical target reaching approximately $4.62.

Multiple chartists, including pseudonymous analyst ThePenguinXBT, view these range-high targets as attractive entry opportunities for long positions.

Cup-and-Handle Pattern Targets $5.80

Chartist AltcoinGordon has identified a classic cup-and-handle formation on XRP's daily chart, presenting an even more bullish scenario. The pattern shows XRP currently in the handle stage, where price consolidates in a tight range following a U-shaped recovery pattern.

Technical analysis suggests that XRP's current consolidation phase could precede a significant breakout above the cup-and-handle neckline at approximately $3.80. Using the measured move technique from the cup's depth, the projected price target stands near $5.80, representing roughly a 90% gain from current price levels.

Critical Support Level at $2.95

The $2.95 support level represents a make-or-break zone for XRP's bullish thesis. This level has proven its importance through previous price action and continues to serve as a critical foundation for any potential recovery.

Maintaining this support is essential for the bullish scenarios outlined by technical analysts. A successful hold above $2.95 would validate the continuation patterns and support the higher price targets.

Bearish Scenario: $2.40 Downside Target

Should XRP fail to hold the $2.95 support level, technical analysis suggests a more bearish outcome could unfold. A break below this critical zone could complete what Elliott Wave analysts term a "WXY correction" pattern.

A WXY correction represents a more extended pullback where price moves lower through three connected waves rather than bouncing quickly. This scenario could drive XRP's price down toward $2.40, a level that coincides with heavy historical trading activity from 2020-2021.

The $2.40 level also aligns with the 200-day exponential moving average, providing additional technical significance. This confluence of factors makes $2.40 a logical support cushion in a bearish scenario, where a price bounce would be likely.

Key Levels to Monitor

Traders and investors should closely watch these critical price levels:

Resistance Levels:

• $3.00 (immediate psychological resistance)

• $3.80 (cup-and-handle neckline)

• $4.40 (Elliott Wave target)

• $5.80 (cup-and-handle measured move)

Support Levels:

• $2.95 (critical support)

• $2.40 (bearish target/200-day EMA)

Technical Indicators Summary

The technical outlook for XRP presents both bullish and bearish scenarios depending on how price action develops around key support and resistance levels. The cryptocurrency's ability to reclaim and hold above $2.95 support will be crucial for any sustained recovery.

Multiple chart patterns, including the bull pennant and cup-and-handle formations, suggest significant upside potential if bullish momentum returns. However, failure to maintain critical support could lead to deeper corrections.

Risk Considerations

As with all cryptocurrency investments, XRP price movements involve substantial risk. The volatile nature of digital assets means that technical projections, while useful for analysis, do not guarantee future price performance. Market participants should conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

The cryptocurrency market remains highly sensitive to regulatory developments, market sentiment, and broader economic factors that can quickly invalidate technical analysis projections.

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