Cardano Price Prediction: Bulls Target $1 as ETF Approval Odds Hit 84%

Cardano Shows Strong Momentum with 21% Weekly Surge

Cardano has demonstrated impressive price action with a 21% surge over the past seven days, following its historical correlation with Bitcoin movements. Currently trading at $0.695 with daily trading volumes of $1.24 billion, ADA presents compelling technical signals that suggest a potential rally toward the $1 target.

The cryptocurrency market has witnessed increased interest in Cardano as multiple bullish indicators converge, including a maturing technical pattern and growing institutional optimism surrounding potential ETF approval.

Technical Analysis: Rounding Bottom Pattern Points to $1 Target

Key Technical Indicators

The most significant development in Cardano's price action is the formation of a bullish rounding bottom pattern. This technical formation has matured following a healthy recovery from the local low of $0.54, suggesting the current uptrend could be sustainable.

The pattern's depth reveals that ADA has already surged 40% from its local bottom at $0.54 to the recent high of $0.74. Based on technical analysis principles, a similar rally from the current resistance breakout level could propel the price to approximately $1.06.

Critical Resistance and Support Levels

The recent 21% rally has enabled ADA to break above the crucial resistance level of $0.74. This level is particularly significant as it coincides with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a key technical indicator that often determines long-term trend direction.

Historical data shows that when ADA successfully breaks above its 200-day SMA with strong buying volumes, as occurred in November 2024, the price typically experiences parabolic rallies. The sustainability of the current breakout depends on maintaining buying pressure above this critical level.

RSI Analysis and Market Sentiment

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory, which could potentially limit short-term gains. However, historical precedent suggests there may still be room for upward movement. In previous bull runs, ADA's RSI has reached levels as high as 89 before significant corrections occurred, indicating the current momentum could continue.

ETF Approval Odds Surge to 84%

Growing Institutional Interest

The probability of spot Cardano ETF approval in the United States has dramatically increased to 84%, representing a significant jump from 42% in mid-June. This surge in approval odds reflects growing institutional confidence in Cardano's regulatory prospects and could serve as a major catalyst for price appreciation.

The ETF speculation has created additional buying pressure as investors position themselves ahead of potential product launches. If approved, a Cardano ETF would provide institutional investors with regulated exposure to ADA, potentially driving substantial capital inflows.

Network Activity and Ecosystem Growth

Beyond ETF speculation, fundamental network metrics support the bullish case for Cardano. Total Value Locked (TVL) has increased by over $100 million since late June, demonstrating growing utility and adoption within the Cardano ecosystem.

The surge in network activity has been accompanied by increased interest in Cardano-based meme coins, further contributing to overall ecosystem growth and potentially supporting price appreciation.

Price Targets and Risk Factors

Bullish Scenario

If current momentum continues and ADA maintains its position above the 200-day SMA, the primary target remains $1.06. This target is derived from the rounding bottom pattern's projection and represents approximately 53% upside from current levels.

Strong buying volumes and sustained interest from both retail and institutional investors could accelerate the timeline for reaching this target. The combination of technical breakout and fundamental catalysts creates a favorable environment for continued price appreciation.

Bearish Considerations

The bullish scenario faces potential headwinds if buying pressure weakens from current levels. The RSI's proximity to overbought conditions could trigger short-term profit-taking, potentially leading to consolidation or minor corrections.

Additionally, broader market conditions and Bitcoin's performance will likely influence ADA's price trajectory, given the strong correlation between the two assets.

Market Outlook and Investment Implications

Short-term Prospects

The convergence of technical breakout, ETF approval optimism, and growing network activity creates a compelling short-term outlook for Cardano. The immediate focus remains on maintaining support above $0.74 while building momentum toward the $1 target.

Long-term Considerations

Beyond the immediate price targets, Cardano's long-term prospects depend on continued ecosystem development, regulatory clarity, and institutional adoption. The potential ETF approval represents a significant milestone that could establish ADA as a mainstream investment vehicle.

Key Takeaways

Cardano's current price action presents several bullish signals that support a potential rally to $1. The combination of technical breakout from a rounding bottom pattern, surging ETF approval odds, and growing network activity creates multiple catalysts for price appreciation.

However, investors should remain aware of potential risks, including overbought conditions and broader market volatility. The sustainability of the current rally depends on maintaining buying pressure above key technical levels and continued positive developments in the regulatory landscape.

The cryptocurrency's performance in the coming weeks will likely depend on its ability to hold above the 200-day SMA while building momentum toward the psychologically important $1 level.