HBAR Price Analysis: 40% Correction Risk Based on Historical Patterns

HBAR Rally Shows Signs of Weakness Despite Monthly Gains

HBAR price momentum appears to be shifting despite impressive monthly performance. While the token posted a strong 58.77% monthly gain, recent price action tells a different story. HBAR has eliminated all weekly profits and dropped over 8% in the past 24 hours, signaling potential deeper corrections ahead.

This price movement extends beyond typical market cooldowns. Analysis of historical price behavior, short-term technical indicators, and critical support zones suggests HBAR investors should prepare for significant downside risk.

Historical Drawdown Analysis Points to Familiar Profit-Taking Zone

HBAR has entered a critical zone where profit-taking historically accelerates. Historical data reveals concerning patterns when Hedera reaches specific drawdown levels from its all-time high.

In March 2025, HBAR rallied to $0.26 when the drawdown from its all-time high measured approximately 53.74%. This level marked the beginning of a severe 47% crash that pushed the token down to $0.14 within just one month.

Current market conditions show striking similarities. On July 22, the drawdown reached 52% with HBAR trading near $0.27. Since that date, correction signals have emerged, suggesting traders are again taking profits within this 50-60% drawdown zone.

Even with a more conservative correction scenario, accounting for potential altcoin season dynamics, a 40% drop from $0.27 would target the $0.16 level. This price point aligns perfectly with a key technical support level, adding significance to the projection.

The pattern demonstrates that historical drawdown zones consistently trigger profit-taking behavior among HBAR traders. Current price action suggests this pattern may be repeating.

Technical Analysis Reveals Death Cross Formation on 4-Hour Chart

Short-term technical indicators provide additional bearish confirmation for HBAR price. The 4-hour chart shows a concerning setup as the 20-period exponential moving average approaches the 50-period exponential moving average from above.

This configuration represents a classic bearish crossover pattern known as a "death cross." While the crossover hasn't fully triggered yet, the setup appears nearly complete, suggesting momentum is shifting toward bearish control.

The 4-hour timeframe often captures trend changes before daily charts reflect the shift. This early warning system indicates bears are gaining strength in the HBAR market.

Supporting this bearish outlook, the Bull Bear Power Index recently flipped negative. This indicator measures the relative strength between buyers and sellers, and its negative reading confirms sellers are gaining control over market dynamics.

If the death cross confirms with bears maintaining control, momentum-driven selling pressure could accelerate HBAR's decline. Combined with historical patterns already establishing a bearish framework, technical indicators align to support further downside potential.

Critical Support Levels Define HBAR Price Trajectory

HBAR currently trades around $0.23, hovering just above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. This Fibonacci level was calculated from the recent low of $0.12 to the high of $0.29, providing key technical reference points.

The $0.23 level represents immediate support, but increasing selling pressure suggests this level may not hold. If $0.23 breaks, the next significant support lies at $0.212, corresponding to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.

Beyond $0.212, additional support levels become critical for HBAR's price stability. The $0.19 level provides another defensive line, while $0.16 represents the target for a 40% correction from recent peaks.

Bullish Invalidation Scenario for HBAR Price

Despite bearish indicators, HBAR price could invalidate the negative outlook under specific conditions. The key requirement involves reclaiming the $0.25 level, which has transformed from support to resistance.

If HBAR successfully breaks back above $0.25 and the death cross formation fails to complete, the bearish hypothesis loses validity. This scenario would require strong buying pressure to overcome current technical headwinds.

However, given the alignment of historical patterns, technical indicators, and key resistance levels, the probability favors continued downside pressure for HBAR price in the near term.

HBAR Price Outlook: Risk Management Essential

Current analysis suggests HBAR faces significant downside risk based on multiple converging factors. Historical drawdown patterns indicate profit-taking pressure at current levels, while technical indicators support further decline potential.

Investors should monitor the $0.23 support level closely, as a break below this level would confirm the bearish scenario. The next support at $0.212 becomes critical if initial support fails.

Risk management remains essential for HBAR positions given the potential for a 40% correction. While bullish invalidation remains possible, current evidence suggests caution is warranted for HBAR investors in the current market environment.

For more Crypto, Web3, Blockchain & AI news visit : www.metamoonmedia.com